The closest of the week's three biggest matchups by power score. Win chances come from each team's scoring this season.

After Week 5: 10,000 simulated seasons. Records are head to head; change is in title-chance points from the week before.

Team	Record	Playoffs	Bye	Title	Title chance chart	Change
Cody	5-0	100%	91%	48%		1 points up
GGibb	3-2	>99%	8%	20%		1 points up
JJackson	3-2	99%	<1%	14%		1 points up
SSteve	5-0	96%	<1%	5%		1 points down
LLuke	2-3	79%	<1%	4%		–
MManuel	1-4	62%	0%	2%		–
EEric	1-4	43%	0%	2%		1 points down
JJake	4-1	67%	<1%	2%		1 points down
BBobby	2-3	37%	0%	1%		1 points up
Matthew (Ju-Tang Clan)	2-3	11%	0%	<1%		–
RRonald	1-4	5%	0%	<1%		–
DDom	1-4	1%	0%	0%		–

Each simulation plays out the rest of the schedule (median game included) from every team's scoring so far, seeds it the way Sleeper does, and runs the bracket. Early in the season every team is pulled toward the league average.